For the second major in a row, one of the leading players in world golf has won the week before. Before the PGA Championship, Rory McIlroy had just won the Wells Fargo, and Scottie Scheffler had just picked up a win heading into this U.S. Open at Pinehurst.
When that happens, there is a certain level of deflation, as bettors worry that the favorite is going to go on and win again, and in Scottie Scheffler’s case, that is a very real possibility. It is no surprise to see him at +335 to win the U.S. Open.
Scheffler has finished 2nd and 3rd in his last two U.S. Open starts and that, coupled with the fact he has won five times in 2024 already, including the Masters, is why he is so short in the betting. Jordan Spieth completed the Masters-U.S. Open double in 2015, but he was the last person to do so, and before him, you have to go back to 2002 when Tiger Woods achieved the same feat.
This is a tall task for Scheffler despite him winning five times already in 2024 and him looking nailed on to at least finish inside the top 5 this week. With him being so short in the market though we would expect value elsewhere, and while the sportsbooks are keeping the closest challengers on side, we do like the look at some of the odds further down the board.
Many will be looking to last week’s runner-up, Collin Morikawa, who I do like, but at +1600 we need to look elsewhere. Instead, I will be bringing you my favorite plays at +4000 and bigger for this week’s U.S. Open.
Three of the last seven winners of the U.S. Open were priced at +4500 or bigger, with Brooks Koepka (+4500 in 2017), Gary Woodland (+8000 in 2019), and Wyndham Clark (+7000 in 2023) all qualifying as sleepers and value picks the week they won.
Our last major winner in this column was Brian Harman who was +15000 to win the 2023 Open Championship, and he followed Wyndham Clark who was +7000 to win the U.S. Open, so does it get easier to find a longshot major as the year goes on?
Go back to the last time they played the U.S. Open here at Pinehurst and you will see that Martin Kaymer won at +4000. Kaymer had won the Players Championship earlier in the season and was already a major winner, so you can see how much value can be found in this event.
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WHAT SKILL SET IS REQUIRED TO WIN THE 2024 U.S. OPEN?
Pinehurst is a unique test, where keeping it in the fairway, whilst not essential is certainly advantageous. Creativity around the greens is a must with the run-off areas, while those who prefer putting in Bermuda greens will appreciate the putting surface change for the 2024 U.S. Open.
Total Driving– Perhaps the most important statistic this week, Total Driving combines Driving Accuracy with Driving Distance, and while the phrase ‘long and straight’ is a bit tired, and of course works everywhere, I am keen to look for those players who can consistently deliver from an accuracy standpoint this week.
Bermuda Putting – Champion Bermuda greens have been installed at Pinehurst No.2, and were actually laid very soon after the 2014 U.S. Open, so they have had plenty of time to bed in. Fast greens are expected this week, given the warm and dry weather, so those who can cope with firm and fast Bermuda greens will certainly be in the driver’s seat this week.
Par 4 Scoring – Each of the last five U.S. Open winners has led the field in Par 4 Scoring the week they won the title, so it is imperative you play the intermediate holes well this week. Sometimes it is about surviving these holes, and if you are under par on the Par 4s this week, you could find yourself in contention.
Approaches from 175+ Yards – There will be many approaches from 175 yards and beyond this week, so players need to be in form with their mid-to-long irons at Pinehurst this week to contend. Starting in the fairway is key, but what you do from there is huge as well, as you want to avoid your ball falling into the run-off areas or greenside bunkers.
DO SLEEPERS AND VALUE PICKS WIN THE U.S. OPEN?
Below are the odds for every winner of the U.S. Open over the past ten years. This will give you an idea of how many sleepers and value picks have won this event in the past decade, and what hope there is for us this week.
2023 – Wyndham Clark +7000
2022 – Matt Fitzpatrick +3000
2021 – Jon Rahm +1000
2020 – Bryson DeChambeau +2000
2019 – Gary Woodland +8000
2018 – Brooks Koepka +2500
2017 – Brooks Koepka +4500
2016 – Dustin Johnson +1600
2015 – Jordan Spieth +900
2014 – Martin Kaymer +4000
Only 4 of the last 10 U.S. Open winners have come into the week with odds of +4000 or bigger, but there is still a decent amount of encouragement from this list.
Martin Kaymer was 40-1 here when he won, and last year’s U.S. Open winner, Wyndham Clark won at +7000 despite never impressing in a major before. He had played well on the season though, and we could see a player who’s hit form at the right time, content, and win their first major championship this week.
Typically, I would prefer golfers who have at least been in the mix before in a major and that will generally be my focus this week. Still, there are a host of golfers who have played majors, and particularly U.S. Open’s well in the past and are still 40-1 or bigger, so we have plenty to work with.
U.S. OPEN BETTING TRENDS, CORRELATING COURSES
The U.S. Open has thrown up some surprise winners in recent years, but we have seen some patterns between all our recent champions, which we will list below.
Young Man’s Major? – 10 of the last 12 U.S. Open winners were 31 or younger the year they won the U.S. Open. Justin Rose was 33 in 2013 and Gary Woodland was 34 in 2019, and they are the two exceptions. 9 of the last 12 were under 30.
Top 30 in the World – 11 of the last 12 winners were ranked inside the top 30 in the world when winning the U.S. Open, with Wyndham Clark the lowest-ranked winner at #32. Martin Kaymer was 28th in the world when he won, while exactly half the winners in this span were ranked inside the top 10.
U.S Open Starts Key: 10 of the last 12 U.S. Open winners had played in this tournament at least three times before winning, with Webb Simpson (1) and Wyndham Clark (2) the exceptions.
Repeat Winners Not Common – In the last 12 years only one player (Brooks Koepka defended) had already won a U.S. Open. Since the turn of the century, only three players (Retief Goosen, Tiger Woods, and Brooks Koepka) have won more than one U.S. Open.
First Time Major Winner? – Of the last 12 U.S. Open winners, only Martin Kaymer, Jordan Spieth, and Brooks Koepka (second time) had already won a major. That means 9 of the last 12 U.S. Open winners were winning their first major.
CORRELATING COURSE: BAY HILL CLUB AND LODGE
It might not seem the most obvious crossover, but I think there is enough crossover in the 2014 leaderboard here, to suggest Bay Hill as a comp. It makes sense as there is a premium on driving and long irons, although the main threat there is water more than anything else.
Martin Kaymer played Bay Hill twice, finishing T23 and T33, but it is the rest of the top 10 that provides the most encouragement for this course correlation.
Erik Compton finished 2nd here behind Martin Kaymer in 2014 and that is a shock name to see on a major leaderboard. A look at his best results according to OWGR shows 5th and 15th place finishes at Bay Hill as two of his best finishes on Tour.
Rickie Fowler who finished alongside Erik Compton here in 2014 has also finished 3rd at Bay Hill in the past.
Jason Day is a winner at Bay Hill and finished T4 here, and Michael Campbell who famously beat Tiger Woods here in 2005 finished runner-up to Woods at Bay Hill in 2002. Woods himself won 8 times at Bay Hill.
Payne Stewart who beat Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods in the 1999 U.S. Open at Pinehurst also won at Bay Hill, and Vijay Singh who also finished 3rd here that year went on to win at Bay Hill.
Henrik Stenson who finished T4 here in 2014 should have won at Bay Hill a year later but gave it up to defending champion, Matt Every, and his fellow T4 finisher, Keegan Bradley also lost out to Matt Every at the same course the year before.
Adam Scott finished T9 here in 2014 and posted multiple 3rd place finishes at Bay Hill among other strong results, and Jimmy Walker who finished alongside him here at Pinehurst had also finished T8 in that tournament in the past.
All in all Bay Hill seemingly provided some clues in 2014, and it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see more of the same in 2024.
SLEEPERS AND VALUE PICKS FOR THE 2024 U.S. OPEN
Here are my four picks at +4000 and bigger for the 2024 U.S. Open.
TOMMY FLEETWOOD +4000 (BETMGM)
It’s Tommy’s time. This man is so overdue a PGA Tour win it is ridiculous, and it is time for him to break through in the best possible way, with a major win.
We know all about Fleetwood’s prowess on the DP World Tour, where he is a 7-time winner of some of the biggest events on offer. His biggest scalps include beating Rory McIlroy at the Dubai Invitational this year, seven years after beating Dustin Johnson in Abu Dhabi. Both of these players are U.S. Open winners, and the Englishman’s own record in this event is special.
Following a T27 finish on debut in 2015, Fleetwood finished 4th at Erin Hills where he was the 36-hole leader and never outside the top 4. A year later he finished with a flash to secure 2nd place behind Brooks Koepka at Shinnecock, the same player who had won a year later. Fast forward to 2023 and Fleetwood posted a third top-5 finish in this event at LACC, so he’s been a fine operator in this event.
Many will tab the Open Championship as his best chance, but so far it has been this tournament that has presented the best opportunities for Fleetwood to taste major glory, and I believe he can capture the title this week.
He has every shot in the bag, will thrive in the firmer conditions, and can get up and down with the best of them when firing, which I suspect he will this week. His putting has gotten the better of him in the past, but he’s been in good shape on the greens for most of the season, including his two major starts.
His 3rd and two further top 10 finishes at Bay Hill are an added bonus, in case that correlation comes to fruition as well.
Five top 10 finishes in his last 9 majors tell you everything you need to know about Tommy Fleetwood, and not only am I convinced he can finally get the win his consistency deserves, but I’d absolutely love to be onside when he does.
TOM KIM +6600 (BETMGM)
At +6600, I think Tom Kim is being slightly overlooked.
The South Korean superstar has taken the PGA Tour by storm over the past couple of years, winning three times, including at the Donald Ross-designed, Wyndham Championship. Factor in a 7th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where big hitters tend to prosper, and it’s fair to say Kim likes this week’s designer.
In two U.S. Open starts, Kim has finished 23rd and 8th and this might be the most suitable of the ones he has played so far as there is less reliance on driving distance this time around. Kim did lead the field alongside Sahith Theegala last week in Total Driving, ranking 3rd for Accuracy and 17th for Distance, which is pleasing ahead of a tough driving event.
Below par so far this year in the majors, Kim has still managed to finish top 30 in both, suggesting a reasonable floor for someone so talented that a win this week would surprise no one.
Paul Tesori has already caddied for one U.S. Open victory, successfully guiding Webb Simpson to victory in 2012, and as the caddie of former World No.1, Vijay Singh as well, his experience could be vital for Kim this week.
Kim opened with a 73 at last year’s U.S. Open and then proceeded to close with rounds of 68, 66, and 69, which is exceptional in a tournament like this.
I think he’ll contend in majors for years to come, and one where he doesn’t have to chase the field in terms of distance will suit Kim this week.
KEEGAN BRADLEY +9000 (FANDUEL)
Keegan Bradley is already a major champion, and I like his chances of contending for another one this week at Pinehurst.
While the U.S. Open hasn’t been a great major for Bradley in general, he finished 4th here in 2014, where he was inside the top 6 for three of the four rounds, and he has since added another top 10 when 7th in 2022.
Coming into the Memorial last week, Bradley had led the field in SG Off the Tee in each of his past two events. One of those was at the PGA Championship, where he finished T18, and again at the Charles Schwab Challenge, where he had a chance to win, finishing T2.
Bradley’s win at the 2011 PGA Championship came on Bermuda greens and his win at the 2018 BMW Championship came at Aronimink – a Donald Ross course, so there are a couple of things to like in his past wins.
His T22 finish at Augusta earlier in the year is his tied-best finish there and his 18th at the PGA Championship was encouraging enough, so his efforts in the majors in 2024 give reason for optimism.
A playoff loser at the Sony Open and a runner-up recently at Colonial, Keegan has been in the mix on two occasions already this season, and he can draw on memories from a decade ago, to give it a run here at Pinehurst as well.
SEPP STRAKA +9000 (BETRIVERS)
Sepp Straka is in exceptional form right now, finishing inside the top 8 in four of his last five individual starts. Add in an 11th in the Zurich Classic in that span and he’s clearly in form, so we should absolutely pay attention.
Straka has finished 16th in three of his last five major starts, with a 16th at the Masters this year, following a 7th at the Donald Ross-designed Oak Hill at last year’s PGA Championship, and his 2nd behind Brian Harman at the Open Championship an obvious highlight.
His 2nd at the Open is eye-catching as we might see a similar type of test this week, and I am willing to chance that this major run continues.
The Austrian ranks 2nd behind only Collin Morikawa in Driving Accuracy this season and led the field in that department last week at the Memorial.
On paper, he’s the perfect fit for a U.S. Open champion, as a PGA Tour winner who’s not yet won a major, but has shown flashes at multiple in the past.
There aren’t many players in better form than Straka right now, especially in this part of the odds board, so he’s hard to overlook.
As the World #18, Straka looks overpriced given the form he is in.